Executive Summary:
Artificial Intelligence is omnipresent, but may not be evolving as rapidly as the public expects
To help you prepare your organization for AI, at Gueth.com we have developed a scenario analysis that answers critical strategic questions for leaders. You can find it here: https://www.gueth.com/the-future-of-enterprises-2033
We are currently conducting research on how leading firms apply Strategic Management and Organizational Design in 2023
If you'd like to participate in the study, please find more details here: https://www.gueth.com/beyond-the-horizon-2023
Did you know, that 1910 the public fully expected to see interplanetary travel become a reality by 1920?
The progression in technological advances in flight had been rapid, and in 1910, this progress made another leap forward with the invention of the double decker plane. The general perception was, that adding more wings and pistons to planes would keep exponentially increasing the speed and range of aircraft and would enable people to cross the chasm to other planets within a decade.
Fast forward to 2010.
With the rise of Virtual Reality, the public perception was, that by 2025, we'd live (or at least work), in a fully virtual environment. Needless to say, we're not quite there yet and it doesn't seem like we will be in the foreseeable future, if ever.
Fast forward to 2023.
Have you tried to count, how many times you have heard "ChatGPT" in the past four months?
Artificial Intelligence seems to be omnipresent.
The foreboders of how this technology will impact us are spreading scenarios that range from doomsday prophecies to utopian dreams.
However, just like in 1910, when most people didn't understand the technical details of aircraft and, more importantly, how the laws of physics pose limits on aircraft, most people in 2023 have only a shallow understanding of the fundamental limitations of the current technology stack that constitutes the foundation for AI.
“ChatGPT is incredibly limited, but good enough at some things to create a misleading impression of greatness. It’s a mistake to be relying on it for anything important right now. it’s a preview of progress; we have lots of work to do on robustness and truthfulness.”
- Sam Altman, CEO OpenAI
For business leaders, it's crucial to identify which of the public's wild expectations are relevant for their business. The key is to recognize, that people expect continued, rapid development and broad changes based on their observation of what AI can accomplish in its currently relatively limited field of applications.
Leaders should ask a series of fundamental questions:
Which elements of the hype will turn out to have substance?
Which parts of generative AI will have actual use for business?
Will this technology be a game changer and a disruptive force for their industry, or are we simply at the peak of the hype cycle and the next step are niche applications?
And they should ask a set of practical questions for their business:
How can (and should) we prepare our enterprise for the rise of AI?
Where can we safely place our strategic bets?
And which strategic pillars that have worked well in the past will require reconsideration and adaption?
We identify four distinct scenarios for how AI can play and answer critical questions for leaders
To give you a solid foundation for making strategic decisions, at Gueth.com we have developed a scenario analysis of how AI can play out and examined the consequences of the different trajectories it may take.
The results of our scenario analysis are detailed descriptions of what the world will look like in 2033 in different scenarios.
But we didn't stop there. Based on these scenarios, we analyzed, which business strategies will fail by 2033, and which will work in 2033 and beyond.
Based on this, we derived strategic directives on the one hand, and no-go areas of strategic courses that should be avoided at all cost.
You can find the study here, the download is free:
Participate in our upcoming Study: Beyond the Horizon 2023
How do leading firms apply Strategic Management and Organizational Design in the current, turbulent market?
We are currently conducting a study to capture the essence of what drives progress in enterprises in 2023.
For this, we interview leaders and decision makers in 30-45 minute 1:1 sessions.
We'd highly appreciate if you'd take half an hour and share your insights with us!
If you are in a leadership position and match one or more of the following criteria, please get in touch!
You are responsible for making strategic decisions for an organization, or part of an organization
You advise the management of an organization or a team in matters of strategic decisions
You shape the course of an organization by preparing decision papers for top management / board members (e.g. as Chief of Staff or Chief Strategy Officer)
All contributors to the study will:
Be the first to receive the results
Get an exclusive invitation to an executive briefing (either via group call or meeting) where they will receive more details on the results of the study and get a chance to dive deeper into open questions
Be invited to connect and network and exchange with other participating leaders
What you need to invest in order to contribute are 30-45 minutes of your time.
If you'd like to be apply as a contributor, please find more information here:
If you have ideas, plans, an aspiration or a strategy and would like to discuss it or have it challenged - I'd be excited to hear them. Drop me an e-mail or schedule a quick call.
Philipp
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